MA Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

MA Mastercard $499.81 -0.16% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — MA

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Mastercard

In Between Walls?

YES

$480

2ND

$550

DOM

$499.81

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength Details →

2.41× Very High (>2×)

Current OI 23,582

30d Avg OI 9,796

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

1.03

NEUTRAL

Between 0.8–1.2 — balanced positioning. No strong directional lean from options flow alone.

Dominant Wall

$550

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-50.19

-10.04%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+1.000

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — MA

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $550 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $480 – $550 through +5d.

No cage setup today — walls are 14.0% apart. Dealers only defend tight ranges (<8%).

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#4	$560 Resistance	1,387	0	1,387	0.00	45%
#1	$550 Resistance	3,102	0	3,102	0.00	100%
#3	$510 Resistance	649	859	1,508	1.32	49%
#5	$500 Resistance	229	953	1,182	4.16	38%
▶ $499.81
#2	$480 Support	0	2,191	2,191	—	71%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Very High (>2×)

Low (<0.7×)

77.1%

232 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

66.0%

50 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

74.1%

27 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

84.6%

13 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

91.1%

80 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	232	77.1%	68.8%	52.8%	45.9%	31.2%
Normal (0.7–1×)	50	66.0%	62.0%	50.0%	26.1%	37.0%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	27	74.1%	55.6%	51.9%	42.3%	23.1%
High (1.5–2×)	13	84.6%	84.6%	69.2%	69.2%	38.5%
Very High (>2×)	80	91.1%	84.6%	72.7%	70.1%	52.0%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — MA

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $520

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$491.89

-1.04%

Closed 1.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.0%

2026-05-04

📌 PIN

Strength 65%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $508

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$497.08

-1.52%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.5%

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $520

Ceiling $540

Range 4.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $520–$540 for 5 days

What Happened

$495.48

+0.00%

2026-04-30

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $550

Range 9.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $550 by end of day

What Happened

$495.46

-1.48%

Closed 10.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.5%

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $510

Ceiling $515

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $510–$515 for 5 days

What Happened

$491.89

-6.35%

Broke down — max move 5.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-28

📌 PIN

Strength 80%

Magnet

Floor $510

Ceiling $515

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $510 by end of day

What Happened

$525.23

+3.47%

Closed 3.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.5%

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $510

Ceiling $515

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $510–$515 for 5 days

What Happened

$504.74

-0.33%

Broke up — max move 3.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-24

📌 PIN

Strength 70%

Magnet

Floor $460

Ceiling $500

Range 7.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$506.43

+0.45%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $515

Ceiling $550

Range 7.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $515–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$502.92

+0.11%

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$525.23

+2.95%

2026-04-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$507.62

-0.73%

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$506.43

-1.98%

Broke down — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$504.17

-3.29%

Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$502.38

-3.12%

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$510.16

-1.88%

2026-04-14

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$511.35

-0.35%

2026-04-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $550

Range 3.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$516.65

+1.59%

Broke up — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $525

Ceiling $550

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $525–$550 for 5 days

What Happened

$521.30

+4.54%

Broke up — max move 4.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-09

📌 PIN

Strength 80%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $502

Range 0.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $502 by end of day

What Happened

$498.66

-0.98%

Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.0%

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $508

Range 1.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $500–$508 for 5 days

What Happened

$519.96

+2.53%

2026-04-07

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $508

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$507.12

+1.77%

Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.8%

2026-04-06

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $508

Range 1.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$498.28

-0.64%

2026-04-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $492

Ceiling $502

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $492–$502 for 5 days

What Happened

$498.66

+1.06%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $492

Ceiling $502

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $492–$502 for 5 days

What Happened

$503.57

+2.42%

Broke up — max move 2.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $492

Ceiling $502

Range 2.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $492–$502 for 5 days

What Happened

$507.12

+1.49%

2026-03-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $492

Ceiling $502

Range 2.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $492–$502 for 5 days

What Happened

$498.28

+0.87%

2026-03-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $520

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $500–$520 for 5 days

What Happened

$501.50

+3.56%

Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $508

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $500–$508 for 5 days

What Happened

$493.44

-1.46%

Broke down — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-25

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $508

Ceiling $512

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $508 by end of day

What Happened

$500.75

-0.40%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $508

Ceiling $512

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $508–$512 for 5 days

What Happened

$499.66

+0.15%

Broke up — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $508

Ceiling $512

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $508–$512 for 5 days

What Happened

$494.00

-1.28%

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $508

Ceiling $512

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $508–$512 for 5 days

What Happened

$484.24

-2.43%

2026-03-19

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $450

Ceiling $500

Range 10.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$496.32

+1.05%

Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $520

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $500–$520 for 5 days

What Happened

$502.76

+2.93%

Broke up — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-17

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $600

Range 19.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $600 by end of day

What Happened

$488.47

-3.57%

Closed 22.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.6%

2026-03-16

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $600

Range 19.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $600 by end of day

What Happened

$506.58

-0.38%

Closed 18.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%

2026-03-13

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $530

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$508.50

+2.11%

Closed 1.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.1%

2026-03-12

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $530

Range 6.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$497.99

+0.14%

2026-03-11

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $530

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$497.31

-1.33%

Closed 0.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $530

Range 5.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $500–$530 for 5 days

What Happened

$506.58

-1.58%

Broke down — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $530

Range 5.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $500–$530 for 5 days

What Happened

$508.50

-1.78%

Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $495

Ceiling $500

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $495–$500 for 5 days

What Happened

$497.99

-4.66%

Broke down — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $535

Ceiling $540

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $535–$540 for 5 days

What Happened

$497.31

-5.21%

2026-03-04

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $480

Ceiling $540

Range 11.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $540 by end of day

What Happened

$524.66

+0.33%

Closed 2.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%

2026-03-03

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $540

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$540 for 5 days

What Happened

$514.72

-1.83%

2026-03-02

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $455

Ceiling $530

Range 14.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $530 by end of day

What Happened

$524.32

+0.64%

Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.6%

2026-02-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $455

Ceiling $460

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $455–$460 for 5 days

What Happened

$522.34

+0.99%

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $525

Range 4.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $500–$525 for 5 days

What Happened

$524.66

+1.92%

2026-02-25

📌 PIN

Strength 45%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $525

Range 4.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$514.77

+1.06%

Closed 2.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%

2026-02-24

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $500

Ceiling $530

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $500 by end of day

What Happened

$509.39

+2.29%

Closed 1.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.3%