MSFT Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

MSFT Microsoft $407.77 -1.60% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — MSFT

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Microsoft

In Between Walls?

YES

$400

DOM

$450

2ND

$407.77

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength Details →

1.64× High (1.5–2×)

Current OI 434,083

30d Avg OI 264,988

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

0.58

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$400

▼ Below spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$+7.77

+1.91%

Price is above the dominant wall — acts as support.

Wall Skew

-0.077

BALANCED

Balanced call/put OI at the dominant wall — no dominant dealer incentive in either direction.

Today's Top Setup — MSFT

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $400 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $400 – $450 through +5d.

No cage setup today — walls are 12.3% apart. Dealers only defend tight ranges (<8%).

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#2	$450 Resistance	26,694	3,735	30,429	0.14	95%
#4	$445 Resistance	23,844	138	23,982	0.01	75%
#3	$430 Resistance	21,639	4,268	25,907	0.20	81%
#5	$410 Resistance	10,543	10,941	21,484	1.04	67%
▶ $407.77
#1	$400 Support	14,806	17,282	32,088	1.17	100%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

High (1.5–2×)

Low (<0.7×)

81.4%

140 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

78.2%

119 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

69.4%

36 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

83.7%

50 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

91.4%

58 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	140	81.4%	75.0%	57.2%	43.0%	35.6%
Normal (0.7–1×)	119	78.2%	64.7%	52.9%	37.8%	25.0%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	36	69.4%	61.1%	55.6%	37.1%	36.7%
High (1.5–2×)	50	83.7%	72.9%	59.6%	45.7%	31.1%
Very High (>2×)	58	91.4%	87.9%	75.9%	67.2%	52.6%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — MSFT

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $420

Ceiling $430

Range 2.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $420–$430 for 5 days

What Happened

$407.77

-0.88%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $420

Ceiling $430

Range 2.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $420–$430 for 5 days

What Happened

$412.66

-0.23%

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $420

Ceiling $430

Range 2.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $420–$430 for 5 days

What Happened

$415.12

+0.16%

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $445

Ceiling $460

Range 3.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $445–$460 for 5 days

What Happened

$420.77

+3.19%

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $460

Ceiling $490

Range 7.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $460–$490 for 5 days

What Happened

$413.96

-2.47%

Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $460

Ceiling $490

Range 7.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $460–$490 for 5 days

What Happened

$411.38

-4.16%

Broke down — max move 5.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $460

Ceiling $490

Range 7.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $460–$490 for 5 days

What Happened

$413.62

-2.64%

Broke up — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $460

Ceiling $490

Range 7.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $460–$490 for 5 days

What Happened

$414.44

-2.40%

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $425

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$425 for 5 days

What Happened

$407.78

-1.92%

Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $425

Range 5.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$425 for 5 days

What Happened

$424.46

-1.95%

Broke down — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $430

Range 7.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $430 by end of day

What Happened

$432.92

+2.07%

Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.1%

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 4.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$424.82

+1.61%

Broke up — max move 3.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 4.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$424.62

+0.43%

Broke down — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $400

Range 7.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $370–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$415.75

-1.07%

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $400

Range 7.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $370–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$432.92

+5.28%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $400

Range 7.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$411.22

+4.61%

Closed 2.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +4.6%

2026-04-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $400

Range 7.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $370–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$418.07

+8.77%

Broke up — max move 9.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-10

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $400

Range 8.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$384.37

+3.64%

Closed 4.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.6%

2026-04-09

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $380

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $380 by end of day

What Happened

$370.87

-0.59%

Closed 2.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%

2026-04-08

📌 PIN

Strength 45%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $380

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $380 by end of day

What Happened

$373.07

-0.34%

Closed 1.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $380

Range 2.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $370–$380 for 5 days

What Happened

$393.11

+5.59%

2026-04-06

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $380

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $380 by end of day

What Happened

$372.29

-0.16%

Closed 2.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.2%

2026-04-02

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $375

Ceiling $385

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $375 by end of day

What Happened

$372.88

-0.16%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.2%

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $390

Range 2.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$390 for 5 days

What Happened

$373.07

+1.00%

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $390

Range 2.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$390 for 5 days

What Happened

$374.33

+1.12%

2026-03-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $390

Range 2.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$390 for 5 days

What Happened

$372.29

+3.71%

Broke up — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $390

Range 2.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$390 for 5 days

What Happened

$372.88

+4.52%

Broke up — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $390

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$390 for 5 days

What Happened

$373.46

+2.05%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $395

Ceiling $400

Range 1.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $395–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$369.37

-0.45%

Broke down — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $395

Ceiling $400

Range 1.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $395–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$370.17

-0.69%

Broke down — max move 4.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $395

Ceiling $400

Range 1.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $395–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$358.96

-6.28%

Broke down — max move 4.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $395

Ceiling $400

Range 1.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $395–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$356.77

-6.57%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-19

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $450

Range 12.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$381.87

-1.84%

Closed 4.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.8%

2026-03-18

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $450

Range 12.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$389.02

-0.71%

Closed 2.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.7%

2026-03-17

📌 PIN

Strength 80%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $450

Range 12.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$391.79

-1.91%

Closed 2.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.9%

2026-03-16

📌 PIN

Strength 90%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $450

Range 12.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$399.41

-0.14%

2026-03-13

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $450

Range 12.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $450 by end of day

What Happened

$399.95

+1.11%

Closed 12.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%

2026-03-12

📌 PIN

Strength 60%

Magnet

Floor $405

Ceiling $415

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $405 by end of day

What Happened

$395.55

-1.57%

Closed 2.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.6%

2026-03-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $405

Ceiling $420

Range 3.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $405–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$391.79

-3.23%

Broke down — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $410

Ceiling $420

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $410–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$399.41

-1.56%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $410

Ceiling $420

Range 2.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $410–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$399.95

-2.31%

2026-03-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $410

Ceiling $425

Range 3.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $410–$425 for 5 days

What Happened

$395.55

-3.28%

2026-03-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $425

Range 6.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$425 for 5 days

What Happened

$401.86

-2.15%

2026-03-04

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$410.68

+1.35%

Closed 2.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.4%

2026-03-03

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$405.20

+0.31%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%

2026-03-02

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$403.93

+1.35%

Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.3%

2026-02-27

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$398.55

+1.48%

2026-02-26

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$392.74

-2.24%

Closed 1.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.2%

2026-02-25

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$401.72

+0.28%

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$403.93

+3.84%

Broke up — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)