TLT
$84.99
-0.23%
(updated 2026-05-12)
Today's OI Read — TLT
Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for 20yr Treasury ETF
In Between Walls?
NO
$90
2ND
$95
DOM
$84.99
Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.
Magnet Strength
2.29×
Very High (>2×)
Current OI
1,054,271
30d Avg OI
459,910
Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.
Put/Call Ratio
0.47
CALL HEAVY
Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.
Dominant Wall
$95
▲ Above spot
The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.
Distance to #1 Wall
$-10.01
-11.78%
Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.
Wall Skew
+1.000
CALL HEAVY
Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.
Today's Top Setup — TLT
SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.
PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.
Strength scores are locked
PROSee exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much
🚀 SQUEEZE
candidate
Strength
██%
5d horizon
Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.
📌 PIN
AUC 0.83 measured
Strength
██%
1d horizon
Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $95 (dom strike) by +1d.
↔ CAGE
AUC 0.55 measured
Strength
██%
5d horizon
Target · Price stays between $90 – $95 through +5d.
Top OI Walls
Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day
| Rank | Strike | Call OI | Put OI | Total OI | P/C | % of Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | $95 Resistance | 110,682 | 0 | 110,682 | 0.00 |
|
| #2 | $90 Resistance | 96,730 | 5,832 | 102,562 | 0.06 |
|
| #5 | $87 Resistance | 70,281 | 18,304 | 88,585 | 0.26 |
|
| #3 | $86 Resistance | 56,850 | 35,334 | 92,184 | 0.62 |
|
| #4 | $85 Resistance | 7,245 | 84,690 | 91,935 | 11.69 |
|
|
▶ $84.99
| ||||||
SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — TLT
Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.
0 days
·
Min Strength
60
Magnet:
2026-05-05
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$86
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.13
+0.98%
2026-05-04
↔ CAGE
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$86
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $86–$86 for 5 days
What Happened
$85.55
+0.71%
2026-05-01
📌 PIN
Strength
90%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$84.94
-0.84%
Closed 1.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.8%
2026-04-30
↔ CAGE
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $86–$87 for 5 days
What Happened
$85.78
-0.04%
2026-04-29
↔ CAGE
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $86–$87 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.13
+0.68%
2026-04-28
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 0.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$85.55
-0.94%
Closed 1.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.9%
2026-04-27
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 0.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.36
+0.06%
Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%
2026-04-24
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 0.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.30
-0.36%
Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%
2026-04-23
📌 PIN
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $88 by end of day
What Happened
$86.61
+0.05%
Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%
2026-04-22
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.57
-0.10%
2026-04-21
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $88 by end of day
What Happened
$86.66
-0.09%
Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%
2026-04-20
📌 PIN
Strength
65%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $88 by end of day
What Happened
$86.74
-0.27%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-04-17
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$87
Ceiling
$89
Range 2.3%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.97
-0.01%
2026-04-16
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.98
+0.92%
Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.9%
2026-04-15
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.19
-0.67%
2026-04-14
📌 PIN
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.77
-0.50%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.5%
2026-04-13
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$87.21
+0.57%
Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.6%
2026-04-10
📌 PIN
Strength
85%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.71
+0.32%
Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%
2026-04-09
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$87
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.43
-0.31%
Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-04-08
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$87
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.70
-0.02%
2026-04-07
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$87
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.72
-0.05%
2026-04-06
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$87
Ceiling
$88
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.76
+0.19%
2026-04-02
📌 PIN
Strength
85%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day
What Happened
$86.59
-0.18%
2026-04-01
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.75
+0.44%
2026-03-31
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$86
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.37
-0.22%
2026-03-30
📌 PIN
Strength
70%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.56
-0.03%
Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.0%
2026-03-27
📌 PIN
Strength
90%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.59
+1.09%
Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%
2026-03-26
📌 PIN
Strength
80%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$85.65
-0.75%
2026-03-25
📌 PIN
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.30
-0.51%
2026-03-24
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$86
Ceiling
$87
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day
What Happened
$86.74
+1.16%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%
2026-03-23
↔ CAGE
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$88
Ceiling
$92
Range 3.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $88–$92 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.59
+0.37%
2026-03-20
↔ CAGE
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$88
Ceiling
$89
Range 1.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $88–$89 for 5 days
What Happened
$85.65
-0.35%
2026-03-19
↔ CAGE
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$87
Ceiling
$91
Range 4.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $87–$91 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.30
-1.34%
2026-03-18
↔ CAGE
Strength
20%
Magnet
Floor
$85
Ceiling
$91
Range 6.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $85–$91 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.74
-0.20%
2026-03-17
↔ CAGE
Strength
20%
Magnet
Floor
$85
Ceiling
$91
Range 6.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $85–$91 for 5 days
What Happened
$85.74
-2.00%
2026-03-16
↔ CAGE
Strength
20%
Magnet
Floor
$85
Ceiling
$91
Range 6.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $85–$91 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.27
-1.01%
2026-03-13
↔ CAGE
Strength
40%
Magnet
Floor
$85
Ceiling
$91
Range 6.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $85–$91 for 5 days
What Happened
$85.95
-0.65%
2026-03-12
↔ CAGE
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$88
Ceiling
$89
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $88–$89 for 5 days
What Happened
$87.47
+0.71%
2026-03-11
↔ CAGE
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$88
Ceiling
$89
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $88–$89 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.91
-0.06%
2026-03-10
↔ CAGE
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$88
Ceiling
$89
Range 0.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $88–$89 for 5 days
What Happened
$87.49
-0.90%
Broke down — max move 2.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-09
📌 PIN
Strength
80%
Magnet
Floor
$88
Ceiling
$89
Range 0.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $89 by end of day
What Happened
$88.28
-0.93%
Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.9%
2026-03-06
📌 PIN
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$89
Ceiling
$90
Range 1.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $90 by end of day
What Happened
$89.11
+0.71%
Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%
2026-03-05
↔ CAGE
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$90
Ceiling
$91
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $90–$91 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.86
-2.09%
2026-03-04
↔ CAGE
Strength
55%
Magnet
Floor
$90
Ceiling
$91
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $90–$91 for 5 days
What Happened
$86.96
-2.32%
2026-03-03
📌 PIN
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$90
Ceiling
$91
Range 0.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $91 by end of day
What Happened
$89.02
-0.44%
Closed 2.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%
2026-03-02
📌 PIN
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$90
Ceiling
$91
Range 1.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $91 by end of day
What Happened
$89.42
-0.31%
Closed 1.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-02-27
↔ CAGE
Strength
35%
Magnet
Floor
$89
Ceiling
$90
Range 1.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $89–$90 for 5 days
What Happened
$88.48
-2.62%
Broke down — max move 2.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-26
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$90
Ceiling
$90
Range 0.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $90 by end of day
What Happened
$90.86
+0.67%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%
2026-02-25
📌 PIN
Strength
85%
Magnet
Floor
$90
Ceiling
$90
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $90 by end of day
What Happened
$90.25
+0.54%
2026-02-24
📌 PIN
Strength
75%
Magnet
Floor
$90
Ceiling
$90
Range 0.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $90 by end of day
What Happened
$89.77
-0.14%