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XLE $57.57 -0.28% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — XLE

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Energy Select ETF

In Between Walls?
YES
$55
DOM
$60
2ND
$57.57

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength
2.15× Very High (>2×)
Current OI 554,069
30d Avg OI 257,759

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio
1.28
PUT HEAVY

Above 1.2 — more put OI than calls. Hedging demand elevated; market participants are positioned defensively.

Dominant Wall
$55
▼ Below spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall
$+2.57
+4.46%

Price is above the dominant wall — acts as support.

Wall Skew
-0.874
PUT HEAVY

Put-heavy at the dominant wall — put sellers defend this level. Acts as structural support/magnet.

Today's Top Setup — XLE

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

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See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

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🚀 SQUEEZE
candidate
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.
📌 PIN
AUC 0.83 measured
Strength ██%
1d horizon
Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $55 (dom strike) by +1d.
↔ CAGE
AUC 0.55 measured
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Price stays between $55 – $60 through +5d.
No cage setup today — walls are 8.7% apart. Dealers only defend tight ranges (<8%).

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12
Rank Strike Call OI Put OI Total OI P/C % of Max
#5 $65 Resistance 35,613 3,001 38,614 0.08
38%
#2 $60 Resistance 36,686 14,712 51,398 0.40
50%
#3 $58 Resistance 28,120 15,860 43,980 0.56
43%
▶ $57.57
#1 $55 Support 6,410 95,553 101,963 14.91
100%
#4 $54 Support 209 41,431 41,640 198.23
41%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — XLE

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·
Min Strength 60
Magnet:
2026-05-05
📌 PIN
Strength 70%
Magnet
Floor $56
Ceiling $60
Range 5.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$57.00
-4.12%
Closed 5.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -4.1%
2026-05-04
📌 PIN
Strength 50%
Magnet
Floor $56
Ceiling $60
Range 5.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$59.45
+0.10%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%
2026-05-01
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $56
Ceiling $60
Range 6.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $56–$60 for 5 days
What Happened
$55.70
-5.35%
Broke up — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-30
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $55
Range 3.4%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days
What Happened
$55.95
-6.20%
2026-04-29
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $55
Range 3.4%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days
What Happened
$57.00
-3.44%
2026-04-28
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $55
Range 3.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days
What Happened
$59.45
+3.02%
Broke up — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $55
Range 3.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days
What Happened
$59.39
+4.62%
Broke up — max move 5.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 40%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $56
Range 6.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $53–$56 for 5 days
What Happened
$58.85
+3.48%
Broke down — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-23
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $57
Range 3.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $55–$57 for 5 days
What Happened
$59.65
+4.69%
2026-04-22
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $60
Range 8.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day
What Happened
$56.98
+0.78%
Closed 3.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.8%
2026-04-21
📌 PIN
Strength 10%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $60
Range 8.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$56.54
+1.20%
Closed 6.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%
2026-04-20
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $63
Ceiling $65
Range 3.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $63–$65 for 5 days
What Happened
$56.77
+3.09%
Broke up — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-17
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $60
Range 9.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$55.07
+0.09%
Closed 9.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%
2026-04-16
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $60
Range 17.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$55.02
-2.76%
Closed 8.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.8%
2026-04-15
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $60
Range 17.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$56.58
+1.47%
Closed 6.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.5%
2026-04-14
📌 PIN
Strength 10%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $60
Range 8.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$55.76
-0.34%
Closed 7.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-04-13
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $60
Range 8.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$55.95
-2.03%
Closed 7.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.0%
2026-04-10
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $60
Range 17.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$57.11
+0.30%
Closed 5.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%
2026-04-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $61
Ceiling $62
Range 1.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $61–$62 for 5 days
What Happened
$56.58
-1.31%
Broke down — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-08
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $61
Ceiling $62
Range 1.7%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $61–$62 for 5 days
What Happened
$55.76
-3.94%
2026-04-07
↔ CAGE
Strength 40%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $62
Range 6.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $58–$62 for 5 days
What Happened
$55.95
-7.00%
Broke down — max move 5.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-06
↔ CAGE
Strength 40%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $62
Range 6.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $58–$62 for 5 days
What Happened
$57.11
-4.31%
Broke up — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-02
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $64
Range 10.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day
What Happened
$59.68
+0.73%
Closed 7.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%
2026-04-01
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $64
Range 10.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day
What Happened
$59.25
+0.47%
Closed 8.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.5%
2026-03-31
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $64
Range 9.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day
What Happened
$58.97
-3.74%
Closed 8.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.7%
2026-03-30
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $64
Range 9.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day
What Happened
$61.26
-1.13%
Closed 4.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.1%
2026-03-27
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $52
Ceiling $58
Range 8.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $58 by end of day
What Happened
$61.96
-0.96%
Closed 6.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.0%
2026-03-26
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $60
Range 3.3%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $58–$60 for 5 days
What Happened
$59.25
-3.69%
2026-03-25
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $62
Range 11.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $62 by end of day
What Happened
$61.52
+1.57%
Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.6%
2026-03-24
📌 PIN
Strength 50%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $60
Range 8.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$60.57
-0.44%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%
2026-03-23
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $56
Range 0.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $55–$56 for 5 days
What Happened
$61.96
+3.91%
Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-20
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $55
Ceiling $56
Range 0.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $55–$56 for 5 days
What Happened
$62.56
+5.48%
Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-19
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $55
Range 8.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day
What Happened
$59.31
-0.08%
Closed 7.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%
2026-03-18
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $55
Range 8.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day
What Happened
$59.36
+1.59%
Closed 7.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.6%
2026-03-17
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $55
Range 8.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day
What Happened
$58.43
-0.14%
Closed 5.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%
2026-03-16
📌 PIN
Strength 10%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $55
Range 8.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day
What Happened
$58.51
+1.05%
Closed 6.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%
2026-03-13
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $50
Ceiling $55
Range 8.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day
What Happened
$57.90
+0.35%
Closed 5.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%
2026-03-12
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $56
Ceiling $60
Range 7.0%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $56–$60 for 5 days
What Happened
$59.36
+3.22%
2026-03-11
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $56
Ceiling $60
Range 7.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $56–$60 for 5 days
What Happened
$58.43
+2.54%
2026-03-10
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $56
Ceiling $60
Range 7.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $56–$60 for 5 days
What Happened
$58.51
+5.23%
Broke up — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $60
Range 3.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $58–$60 for 5 days
What Happened
$57.90
+2.81%
Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-06
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $58
Ceiling $60
Range 3.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $58–$60 for 5 days
What Happened
$57.70
+2.00%
2026-03-05
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $54
Range 1.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $53–$54 for 5 days
What Happened
$57.51
+1.82%
2026-03-04
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $54
Range 1.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $53–$54 for 5 days
What Happened
$56.98
+1.41%
2026-03-03
📌 PIN
Strength 60%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $57
Range 7.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $57 by end of day
What Happened
$56.19
-0.58%
Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%
2026-03-02
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $53
Ceiling $58
Range 9.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $58 by end of day
What Happened
$56.52
-0.91%
Closed 3.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.9%
2026-02-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $57
Ceiling $58
Range 2.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $57–$58 for 5 days
What Happened
$56.57
+1.16%
Broke up — max move 2.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-26
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $52
Ceiling $60
Range 13.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$55.92
+1.58%
Closed 7.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.6%
2026-02-25
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $52
Ceiling $60
Range 13.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day
What Happened
$55.05
+0.33%
Closed 9.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%
2026-02-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $52
Ceiling $56
Range 7.3%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $52–$56 for 5 days
What Happened
$56.52
+2.58%